The Role of Influence in Global Politics

Influence is the ability for an actor to affect global politics in a manner that favors its short, medium, and/or long-term goals. These actors include individuals, states, supranational institutions, companies, and non-governmental organizations on bi-lateral, multi-lateral, regional, and/or worldwide bases.

The effects of influence range from something as (relatively) small as the inclusion of a fisheries clause in an agricultural trade agreement between two states, to something as large as the organization of a global carbon emissions cap and trade agreement.

Influence is measured on three levels:

1. Structural Influence – The power that comes from institutional attributes, such as a large military (e.g. United States), rising economy (e.g. Turkey), dispute resolution authority (e.g. World Bank), or even substantial wealth (e.g. Bill Gates).
2. Political Influence – The power that comes from an actor’s position within the structure of an institution, such as the President of the United States, Secretary General of the United Nations, or Managing Director of the IMF.
3. Reputation Influence – The power associated with an actor’s reputation, such as Lucas Papademos’ reputation as an economics expert, the European Union as a champion of Human Rights, or Method as a socially responsible company.

In recent months, the European sovereign debt crisis stands out as an example of how each of these levels can impact global politics.

Structurally, one of the most important actors in the sovereign debt crisis is Germany. As Europe’s largest economy, it wields considerable influence and is able to affect the operations of the European Central Bank. This influence becomes apparent in the statements of ECB leaders throughout the crisis, asserting that its primary mission is to maintain price stability. This is also the primary goal of German monetary policy for the last eighty-five years, as a result of the inflation crisis of the early to mid nineteen-twenties.

Politically, the International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde is able to influence the crisis negotiations. As the chief staff officer, she is responsible for the IMF’s day-to-day operations, including the decision to make loans to countries within the EMU (such as Greece), as well as the negotiations concerning the terms of those loans, both of which have a profound effect on the future of the union.

On a reputation basis, United States Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has attempted to influence the outcome of the crisis, by offering his advice. As the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the United States’ financial meltdown in 2007 and 2008, he gained direct experience managing a crisis of the magnitude currently impacting the Euro.

The issue that remains, however, is how strong an actor’s influence actually is. For example, when comparing Germany’s structural influence as the strongest economy in Europe to Timothy Geithner’s influence as the United States Secretary of State, it is clear that Germany’s influence is considerably greater than Geithner’s. It is not only the type of influence an actor yields, but also the weight of that influence, which affects the outcome of global politics.